Over the past year, one of the most prominent trends we've observed is the shift of freight from the for-hire market back to private fleets—a trend that has arguably prolonged the soft freight cycle in an economy that has exceeded many expectations. However, according to the latest edition of the *Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK* report, this movement seems to be drawing to a close.
Tim Denoyer, ACT Research's Vice President and Senior Analyst, noted that a decrease in equipment availability, especially within private fleets, might significantly influence the market's trajectory in 2025. Additionally, an upcoming FMCSA regulation could result in downgrading tens of thousands of CDL holders in states that haven't previously enforced the FMCSA's Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse. While it's challenging to measure the exact impact, Denoyer believes that when state driver's license authorities reduce the number of CDLs on November 18, it will enhance road safety and push truckload rates upward.
Looking at the DAT load/truck ratio, it doesn't follow a simple 1-to-10 scale. In 2017 and early 2018, it hit the mid-teens, and in 2021, it soared into the high teens, even surpassing 20. Recently, our seasonally adjusted DAT load/truck ratio climbed above 7 in early October, hinting at a modest uptick in spot rates in the coming months. Still, Denoyer emphasized that the equipment capacity adjustments necessary to drive rates higher in 2025 are not yet fully realized.
The monthly 58-page ACT freight forecast offers deep insights and projections for various U.S. freight metrics, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. This service predicts trends in the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year horizon, covering capacity, volumes, and rates. The *Freight Forecast* provides unparalleled details on rate outlooks, empowering supply chain stakeholders to plan with enhanced clarity and reduced uncertainty.
ACT Research stands out as the premier source for commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for North America and China. Major North American truck and trailer manufacturers, along with their suppliers, rely on ACT’s analytics. Financial institutions also use ACT’s reports to guide their decisions. ACT Research contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and is part of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research's leadership has received numerous accolades, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecast over four years. ACT Research's senior team has also been honored with distinctions like the Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast and the Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook. For further information, visit www.actresearch.net.
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