Time is a devilish devil. When we meet again, we cannot find the warmth we once had.
In just one year, the Chinese heavy truck market went from heaven to hell. At the time of the reunification, the rumors of the “gossip†of the workshop were even more bleak, and secretly fermented in the industry. It is rumored that for a truck company losing money for several consecutive years, not only the capital chain is tight, investors have also transferred their state-owned shares, and the direction of the company's future will be complicated and confusing. At the same time, at least two companies that have suffered losses for many years are privately looking for buyers to sell the entire company.
Gossip rumors are not enough to believe, but it is not groundless. A company executive told Xiao Bian that the answer will be clear within the next three months. The heavy losses of heavy-duty truck companies and their departure have knocked out the alarm for their impulsive investments. In recent years, a number of companies, including rumors, have been greedy, expanding their production capacity and launching powertrain projects. This has led to vigilance over their continuous loss. The years of hard work of the enterprises may be disastrous, and they may become the last straw to overwhelm them.
The heavy truck market has always been a place where “Moscow does not believe in tearsâ€. In the face of the brutal competition between you and us, we cannot deny that capital's natural profit-seeking attributes, and not even the ambitions of companies to become bigger and stronger, report disdain for cold eyes. Only car companies need to integrate and expand, but they need to be able to do what they need. They must not look at the wrong path.
What is it? Uncertainty about the future of the market is to take a look.
In the year of light and shadow, China's heavy truck market has experienced ups and downs, but overall it has shown a tsunami-like rise. From the initial tens of thousands of vehicles per year to the needs of the total market of nearly one million vehicles, it was just a matter of one finger, and one did not pay attention. The Chinese heavy truck market became the largest market in the world in a hurry.
"Suddenly like a spring night," in 2010, when market conditions broke out, truck sales were just like the emperor's daughter did not marry, such as the situation in which truck users in the 4S shop rushed to grab cars in cash. It was almost every dealer who had Experience the joy scene. Under the influence of the investment of RMB 4 trillion, under the background of local government-only GDP argument, when the sales volume of heavy trucks reached the level of one million cars, many coffee lovers in the industry claimed that “the capacity of China’s heavy truck market can be Up to 1.5 million treble. At this time, how many companies are able to scale up their capacity and pursue large-scale enterprise ambitions?
The excitement and embarrassment of life are often experienced only in a moment. In the face of a cloudless market, the strategists' "Laughing in the Sea" allowed entrepreneurs to see good expectations, but they lost calm thinking and forgot that "the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious." Training. At that time, your family expanded the production line. My family launched engines, gearboxes, axles and other assembly projects became fashionable. However, the hourglass of time will often make the market's risk gradually dew, especially in this year. It is estimated that by the end of this year, the sales volume of heavy trucks in China has grown to only 500,000 vehicles. The data shows that the total production capacity of various companies has already reached more than 2 million units, and 1.5 million units of production capacity have been vented. This is clearly unsurprising for companies. What is more saddening is that, as China's economy has changed from high-speed growth to a new norm of medium-speed growth, the annual sales of heavy-duty trucks in China will continue to fluctuate around 500,000 vehicles or become an event of high probability. Under such circumstances, how many billions of production capacity were absorbed by the family's investment? How is the investment recovered?
The bad eyes will inevitably go the wrong way. At the same time as vehicle capacity expansion, engines, transmissions, axles and other powertrain projects were launched. Xiaobian boldly asked, is this not the wrong way?
It is undeniable that the onboard powertrain, especially the engine project, can bring many benefits to the company. For example, it can reduce the cost of procurement and eliminate the need for upstream engine companies to increase prices, supply shortages, and delays when the market is bullish; it can adjust technology more flexibly and accurately, depending on the needs of market strategies. In particular, on the one hand, once the vehicle company produces its own product, not only does it strengthen the technical strength of the vehicle company, but it can also form an effective echo mechanism within the company, which makes the vehicle more compatible and the speed of the model launches faster. . In the increasingly demanding after-sales service of customers, it also avoids pushing and buckling between entire vehicles and parts and components companies.
The reasons for letting vehicle companies go to the Nu Hai campaign include imitating overseas. As we all know, at present, most of the well-known foreign heavy truck companies have mostly self-produced heavy-duty trucks. Therefore, Chinese bigwigs have reason to say that the trucking companies in China today are merely replicas of overseas famous companies. No need to be alarmed.
The reason for the greed for the whole vehicle company is of course not just the above statement. The most ideal answer may be the stupendous fact that the powertrain companies have amazing profits. Privately, some high-level truck companies have complained to reporters that at present, the actual profit rate of vehicle companies is less than 2%, while the profit rates of engine and other assembly companies are still high, and they are also working hard in trucks. Want to work for engine companies? Peer different life? It can be seen that, in the pursuit of profit maximization, fertilizer and water do not leave behind outside the field of thought, how can the vehicle companies not plough the powertrain into this piece of fertilizer?
However, water can carry a boat and it can also overturn it. As the sword strikes the tentacles on the road to the powertrain, some truck companies have apparently forgotten that their technical level is still unsatisfactory. This kind of failure is not only reflected in the technical level, but also reflected in the superior processing technology and equipment, not only reflected in the lack of core technology, but also reflected in the enterprise's application and grasp of the market.
For example, the engine, because it involves many disciplines such as fluid mechanics, combustion, and vibration, the technical threshold is not only high, but also large in investment, and the profit cycle is longer. It is difficult to change many structures and components after they are finalized. In particular, after the engine has been used in the third stage of the country, the electronically controlled fuel common rail system has been widely used. One model needs to be tested with a common rail supplier to do a lot of bench tests. The cost of the pen is undoubtedly great. If the batch level is not reached, the new engine project will face unsustainable minutes. More importantly, manufacturing engines and batch engines are two completely different concepts. How to ensure consistency in production has always been a challenge for domestic engine owners such as Weichai and Yuchai. Having a self-produced powertrain is certainly a good thing, but it must not add icing on the car and lift a rock to beat its own feet.
The ideal is sometimes Yang Yuhuan. The reality is often Zhao Feiyan. At present, most of the top ten companies in the heavy truck rank have the powertrain of a controlling or joint venture, especially the engine, and their investment scale is often equal to the production capacity of the whole vehicle. Can you ask yourself, in addition to your own part, how much has you achieved export?
Needless to say, due to various factors such as short establishment time, immature technology, and unsatisfied services, it is difficult for a non-independent engine company's related products, whether it is price, technology, quality, and service, to go through decades or even centuries. The baptism of an independent engine company is comparable. Under such circumstances, vehicle manufacturers must face the cruel reality that their own engine assembly is under-employed and customers are not paying for it. On the one hand, they still have to outsource the engine to meet the actual needs of customers. In the face of the current market environment and technological level, the author can not help but wonder if it is necessary to invest hundreds of millions of yuan or even more investment in the assembly project, when it can recover its investment?
At the same time, in the environment where customers are king, independent assembly companies have not been “abandoned†by these companies. Observing carefully, it is not difficult to find that despite the Hanma and Corso engines, today's Hualing and Shang Yihong still need the support of Weichai. Although Fukuda Daimler has an ISG engine assisting and the sales volume has exceeded 40,000 units, it has also paid the price for the temporary retreat in the market rankings, and has once again “aligned†with Weichai because of all the incomprehensible complexities. Mass production for many years, FAW liberation has not been fully equipped with Xichai machine. In addition to Dongkang and its own production engines, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles has always maintained Yuchai. Although Mai Sifu escorted the car, JAC Geerfa seemed to need foreign aid from other engine companies. This is true in the engine industry, and even more so in the gearbox industry. Although Dongfeng, FAW, CNHTC, Hualing and other companies have gearbox production lines that can be plowed for many years, today's heavy truck market is still dominated by Fast.
In fact, no matter how a company develops, the path is different, but most of it can't go without the basic line of “doing fine - making it bigger—doing it allâ€. However, after years of development, China's truck companies have grown from scratch, from large to small, and are rapidly expanding due to the rapid expansion of market demand. However, this lack of "big" step of "doing fine", the core is how much water has puffiness. We have no reason to accuse the bigger companies of hunger for the idea of ​​becoming all-powerful. It is simply to bypass the “finishing†step of “doing fine†steps, and its development will often become a market for all kinds of trades. .
With regard to the puffiness problem of impulsive investment, a big ambition in the truck industry is deeply felt. “This is like running a 100-meter speed for 15 seconds, and we must learn to catch up with the movement of a 100-meter speed athlete for 10 seconds. This will not only make its technical movements distorted, but will also make the athlete’s ideas fluctuate. At present, China’s truck companies are desperate to It is a make up lesson, not a full one, because the technical foundation is still not solid, and we must do a good job in processing, manufacturing, research and development, and make innovations. We must not be greedy for the sake of perfection. Otherwise, mistakes will be misused."
Xiao Bian believes that truck manufacturing is not only a capital-intensive industry, but also an industry that needs cooperation, support and support in many aspects such as technology, marketing, and marketing. Diversification strategy is of course an important choice for companies to evade industry risks. However, besides having a certain degree of complementarity and synthesis with the primary industry, this choice requires a long-term and rational analysis of the external environment and the future market environment. In addition to doing a good job of making products, it also requires the long-term preparation for the Long March. It is not possible to seek a large and complete surface and pull the battle line too long. Otherwise, turning one's boat into a boat can only make the company fall into a dilemma. Therefore, from this perspective, we must not only pay tribute to truck manufacturers that only focus on vehicle technology, such as the American Peca, but also Delphi, Bosch, Cummins, and even parts and components companies such as Yuchai and Fast. Learn. Because of the sneaking step by step in the areas where we are good at, we can also win the respect of the world.
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