In recent years, we have been preparing to step into the era of electric vehicles, but still in place.
Nowadays the industry is hot about the issue of industrialization of electric vehicles. If this topic is still going to be maintained in 35 years, then we will doubt whether there is any need for the development of electric vehicles at this stage or in this century. In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, new energy-saving technologies and alternative fuels are being continuously developed, which will make the government's desire for electric vehicles declining.
One thing we need to understand is that at this stage, the tide of electric vehicles is not the result of the market's own promotion. Rather, governments of various countries around the world have involved the intervention of the color of administrative intervention due to environmental and energy considerations. In other words, the original intention of the birth of electric vehicles was to reduce the consumption of non-renewable resources and the adverse environmental impact of exhaust emissions. If the better technology in the field of conventional fuel vehicles can achieve this same aspiration, then the desire of governments for the realization of electric vehicles will become less urgent.
Without the promotion of the government, the electric car will be talking about industrialization.
The U.S. government has given up its goal of one million electric vehicles by 2015. As the news just started, it caused an uproar in the industry. Because at this time the Chinese government departments did not stand on the July 2012 release of "energy-saving and new energy automotive industry development plan (2012 ~ 2020)", the realization of 2015 China's total sales of electric vehicles to reach 500,000 And the two goals of 5 million by 2020 have shaken.
Of course, the industry generally does not have any confidence in the two goals of 500,000 vehicles and 5 million vehicles. Statistics show that in 2012 China's new energy passenger car sales totaled about 17,400, compared with 8,159 in 2011 doubled. However, considering all factors, it is impossible for the Chinese electric vehicle market to grow exponentially in the next two to three years. On the one hand, consumer psychology is immature; on the other hand, the reliability of electric vehicles and the supporting construction of infrastructure are both Unable to support the market size of 500,000 vehicles in 2015.
According to a survey released last year by the Pike Research Institute in the United States, the market for electric vehicles in China will grow by 60% in the next five years. As of 2017, China's annual sales of plug-in electric vehicles will exceed 152,000 units, accounting for 1% of the total light-vehicle sales in China. Obviously, the findings of this survey are still very positive and optimistic, but still far from the expectations of the Chinese government for the electric vehicle market.
A single charging station and charging pile coverage in the country, its investment will be hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars (in 2009 State Grid built in Shanghai covers an area of ​​400 square meters, only 9 parking spaces Charging station will reach 5.08 million yuan investment), if the traditional car through technological change to achieve a similar effect of energy-saving emission reduction, then this part of the huge spending can be avoided, for the financial constraints, private financing is difficult and can not see a large amount Some countries and regions laying charging network will bring much economic benefits, it is necessary to re-examine the development strategy of electric vehicles.
At present it seems that the maturity of driverless technology and the highly intelligent integration with the rapid development of car networking technology are not only expected from the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction, but also are expected to be highly anticipated.
Google is not the originator of driverless technology, but its team has developed unmanned systems that already have the potential to hit the road. Google's driverless car in the cumulative driving mileage of the 480,000 km, there is no computer operation under an accident (rear-end time), and get on the road in California eligibility. The maturity of driverless technology is guaranteed.
In fact, driverless cars have been sought after by electric vehicles for decades. As early as the 1939 World Expo in New York, General Motors unveiled an unmanned electric vehicle in its futurama exhibition hall. Since the 1980s, the United States Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has begun to support the study of autonomous vehicles. Small-scale driverless car tests have been going on for some time. For example, in 1997, an event funded partly by state agencies in California, USA, several unmanned Buick cars guided an embedded magnet in the road about 7 miles on an autobahn near San Diego . It is understood that in the next few years, GM will penetrate the unmanned vehicle market, is expected to be formally based in the industry by the end of 2020.
Not only General Motors, Volkswagen, Toyota also deployed unmanned and semi-automatic driving layout, and achieved good results. A few years ago Volkswagen R & D worked on unmanned systems development at Stanford and Volkswagen Electronics Research Laboratories in the United States. Pasat Junior and Touareg Stanley, two driverless cars are the vanguard of the public in the field of driverless technology, including Passat Junior successfully completed the 2007 Urban Challenge "UrbanChallenge2007" Touareg Stanley completed in October 2005 from Mo The Javar Desert reaches 212 kilometers south of Las Vegas.
Earlier this year, Volkswagen's Audi Motor Co. announced that it will use driverless technology on the 2016 Audi A8. And at this year's CES show, Audi and Lexus on the same stage (Lexus exhibited driverless car whose main function is still as an experimental platform), demonstrated its automatic parking system and automatic pilot system and other driverless technologies. In fact, Audi has made a lot of achievements in the research and development of driverless technologies. For example, the Audi TTS participated in the 2010 Pikes Peak Adventure and was the first "robot car" to participate in the event. Audi has not been able to use driverless technology in mass production models and market it for years. 2016 Audi A8 will be a milestone if it can be successfully launched on an unmanned system.
In this connection, we can see that the unmanned time is already within reach.
Sebastian Thrun, Google's chief driver of driverless cars, mentions three "90%" when it comes to driverless cars: 1 Google's driverless cars reduce traffic accidents by 90% %; 2, commuting time and energy can be reduced by 90%; 3, can make the number of cars reduced by 90%. If these "90%" can really be realized, then the conversion into economic costs and social costs will be very substantial and will not be less favorable than the economic and social benefits brought by electric vehicles. The key is that driverless cars do not have to go a long way in the infrastructure area like EVs. In addition, car owners also save unnecessary charge and battery stability concerns, easier to promote.
With the improvement of driving system and energy-saving technologies, the development of biomass energy and other alternative fuels are also making continuous progress. In addition, technologies such as shale gas / oil exploration are continuously improving, all of which will effectively supplement petroleum resources To ease the panic over the depletion of oil and gas. Driverless cars are much faster than the industry has predicted, and their industrialization may not be later than that of electric vehicles. If the driverless car comes first, then the era of electric vehicles may be
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