The soaring prices of natural rubber are becoming unaffordable for tire companies. In just 3 months, the price of natural rubber has risen from 30,000 yuan per ton to 40,000 yuan, and it has now continued for more than 1 million for 1 month. What is the meaning of the highest price of 40 thousand yuan in rubber?
"If the rubber price in 2011 has been more than 40,000 yuan, the domestic tire companies are likely to suffer a total loss," said one tire company official. This is the most severe test faced by domestic tire manufacturers. It is also the epitome of downstream companies that suffer from the cost of global commodity prices.
Tianjiao "4 million era"
Starting in June 2010, the 1105 natural rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange began to rise unilaterally from a 20,000 yuan per ton level. By October 2010, it exceeded 30,000 yuan. On January 19, 2011, it exceeded 40,000. The Yuan Daguan had risen to RMB43,500 at the highest. On February 21, 2011, the main contract of the rubber futures of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 625 yuan to 40,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.52%.
"From our internal communication point of view, high rubber prices will become the norm. If there is no special factor, the average price of natural rubber in 2011 may not be less than 40,000 yuan." Shandong Linglong tire insiders are not without worry.
Cai Weimin, secretary general of the China Rubber Industry Association’s tire division, previously stated that the reason why the price of natural rubber has repeatedly hit a record high is mainly due to rising prices of resource raw materials, sharp increase in demand for rubber, restrictions on exports from exporters of natural rubber, and climate impacts. Reduced production and futures market speculation.
It is understood that with the start of the tire business after the Spring Festival, a new round of raw material procurement will continue. Some tire companies to resist high-priced raw materials, had previously chosen to leave early or delay the start of production, production activities are mostly to digest the early inventory-based. After the holiday tire sales season will come, low inventory can not meet market demand, large and medium-sized tire companies have entered the market purchase, rubber spot quotes will rise accordingly. In addition, the main producing country is approaching the cut-off period, and the cut-off generally lasts until mid-April. The decrease in supply has helped boost Jiaojia's upward trend.
"In 2010, China's auto sales exceeded 18 million vehicles, and in 2011, it may even reach 20 million. The strong consumer demand resulting from this has become the basis for supporting natural rubber prices." A German futures research report pointed out that "the periodic fluctuations in prices Although it is inevitable, Hujiao has indeed entered the era of high prices." Hongyuan Futures Research believes that natural rubber prices in 2011 may form a pattern of two high middle low, it is expected that the high price may reach around 48,000 yuan per ton in the first quarter The low point reached around 30,000 yuan/ton in the third quarter.
Wheel enterprises prolonged suspension of production cuts
The exquisite tire insider said: "In response to cost pressures, we are raising prices on the one hand, but in fact the tire companies have limited bargaining power, it is difficult to conduct downward, on the other hand, it restricts the production of some low-end products. This is also the majority of tire companies. In response to this policy, there are also companies that have limited production and reduced production.†But these efforts appear to be in the hands of 40,000 yuan per ton of rubber.
"Astronomical" natural rubber is continuously squeezing the profitability of domestic tire companies. Up to now, several listed tire companies have announced 2010 profit reductions and even pre-loss announcements. Fengshen shares expects 2010 net profit to decrease by about 50% year-on-year. Tire Tire expects 2010 net profit to decline by 50% to 70%. S Gutton expects 2010 net profit to decline by more than 50% year-on-year. Zhujiang Tire expects to see significant losses in the second half of 2010.
Cai Weimin said that China National Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch statistics, in 2010 the country’s tire companies face a loss of 26%. Cai Weimin said that according to the current price of natural rubber, the loss of tire companies in the first quarter of 2011 will undoubtedly continue to expand.
The China Rubber Industry Association once held an emergency tire economic analysis meeting in January 2011. Seven major tire companies including Zhongce Rubber, Aeolus, and Shuangqin Group reached an agreement at the meeting to use the Spring Festival holiday to extend the company's holiday suspension. Time to reduce the amount of natural rubber.
Cai Weimin said that according to the latest statistics from the tire branch of China's 10 major tire companies, the output of the seven companies in December 2010 decreased month-on-month, with one flat and two slightly increasing. The overall decrease was 3.6%; statistics from 7 major companies in January 2011 showed that tire production fell by 9% month-on-month, while historically, January output was generally flat or slightly higher than December of the previous year. In February, the output fell due to production cuts by manufacturers.
The above-mentioned seven major tire companies jointly called for the country to put a stock of natural rubber to stabilize market prices, and proposed improving the national rubber reserve regulatory mechanism. Shen Jinrong, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber, said that he hopes the country can throw 100,000 to 150,000 tons of reserve rubber in an emergency.
Delrin tire insiders said that companies of course want to put more plastic stocks the better, but the total amount of national reserve rubber is limited, and the industry gap is very large, even if put in, it is estimated that only tens of tons of scale. "The tens of thousands of tons of put in the total consumption of 3 million tons of natural rubber in China is not large, but the release of plastic glue will have an impact on the market as a whole, thus suppressing the price of rubber."
In addition, seven companies also called for the cancellation of natural rubber import tariffs.
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