As a hot word in the 2012 "Government Work Report" - the automobile industry, after experiencing the "cold winter" in 2011, the government has become more aware of the problems of industry capacity expansion, mergers and acquisitions, etc., and introduced more active policy measures. , pointing out the direction for the automotive industry in transition. At the same time, the representatives of the "two sessions" have also made suggestions for the development of the automotive industry.
A magnificent blueprint has been drawn up for China's automobile industry.
The "Daily Economic News" reporters presented the blueprints one by one by combing the development of the automobile industry in recent years and combining interviews with relevant representatives.
China’s entry into the automobile society is not always smooth. In 2011, China’s car ownership exceeded 100 million for the first time, second only to the United States, and became the second largest car in the world. However, it was also in this year that the Chinese auto market lasted for 25%. The high-speed growth has come to an abrupt end, and the annual growth rate has dropped to 2.5%.
The Chinese auto industry is still facing many pressures from the simultaneous multi-lane growth of various segments of the automobile market, the new development stage of industrial upgrading and transformation, and the pursuit of core competitiveness.
"This may not be a bad thing," Jia Xinguang, a senior analyst at the automobile, said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter. "This is a good time for the new round of adjustment of the Chinese auto industry. From a holistic perspective, the market and A variety of contradictions, such as technology, scale and connotation, capacity issues and social issues, should be put on the agenda of reform, but to solve this series of problems, we need policy navigation first."
Policy orientation is already very obvious. Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out in the "Government Work Report" that it is necessary to "focus on the automobile, steel, shipbuilding, cement and other industries, control the increment, optimize the stock, promote mergers and acquisitions, and increase industrial concentration and economies of scale." At the same time, "new energy vehicles" is also a term with a high frequency of occurrence.
"Last year's "Government Work Report" also mentioned new energy vehicles, which is an important direction for the long-term strategy and development of China's auto industry," said Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association.
Faced with disorderly capacity expansion, chaotic mergers and acquisitions, and impulsive policies, the future development path of China's auto industry is becoming more and more confusing. However, judging from the government's policies and determination, this is not only a bottleneck period in the development of China's automobile industry, but also an important period of strategic opportunities.
Control incremental signal light
If the new energy vehicle is a long-term strategy for the Chinese auto industry, then the approach of the car's production capacity to the "alarm line" is an urgent problem.
Back in 2009, China's auto market has seen a “spurt†growth under the favorable policy conditions. Many companies represented by Dongfeng Nissan have “eaten losses†due to insufficient production capacity.
Since then, under the impetus of the local government, various car companies have rushed to set off a wave of “energy expansionâ€. The second factory of Dongfeng Nissan Huadu and the second factory of Dongfeng Honda have laid the foundation... Compared with the joint venture brand, the independent brands are not weak. BYD has expanded its capacity by 800,000 units and the Great Wall has increased its production capacity by 500,000 units. Geely has made plans to expand production by more than 1 million units.
If it continues to develop at this rate, the domestic market cannot digest the scale of production capacity of automobiles. A few days ago, KPMG released a survey report stating that “China’s auto production capacity will reach 32.5 million units in 2015. In 2016, the Chinese auto market will be the country with the most oversupply problems among the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China).â€
Li Weidou, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and general manager of China FAW Group Import and Export Corporation, said that among the four major automobile groups in China, SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng and Changan had more than 21 million capacity plans in 2015, and the capacity planning of the top 12 companies reached 40.4 million vehicles. By the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the capacity of the Chinese auto market is expected to be around 25 million units. Compared with the capacity planning of more than 40 million units, the risk of overcapacity is further increased.
"At present, the National Development and Reform Commission has begun to control the production capacity. It is difficult to obtain approval for the new joint venture factory." Cheng Xiaodong, chief analyst of the automobile industry of the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that "China's enterprises have certain independent research and development." Ability, they have certain research and development capabilities and strength, and technical reserves have a certain foundation. It is much more important to expand the road through technological innovation than to expand capacity."
At the same time, Luo Lei also said, "China's auto industry is not big enough, but not strong enough. In the case of limited production capacity, it is necessary to take the road of industrial restructuring and build a car enterprise with 'Chinese characteristics' and capable of representing China's strength. The essential."
Platform sharing is better than "big fish eat small fish"
Mergers and acquisitions have also been mentioned by the government, but this is an effective but difficult road.
As early as 2009, the "Detailed Rules for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automobile Industry" issued by the General Office of the State Council clearly pointed out that in China, two or three large-scale enterprise groups with a production and sales scale of more than 2 million vehicles should be formed, and 4 to 5 production and sales scales should be over 100. The number of automobile enterprise groups with a production and sales volume of over 90% of the total number of automobile enterprise groups has been reduced from the current 14 to less than 10. Encourage large auto companies such as FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC and Changan to implement mergers and acquisitions across the country; support auto companies such as BAIC, GAC, Chery and Heavy Duty to implement regional mergers and acquisitions.
At the end of 2010, the State Council issued the “Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Plan (2011-2015)â€. According to the plan, in the next four years, China will vigorously promote the development of self-owned brand vehicles, encourage advantageous enterprises to implement mergers and acquisitions, and form 3 to 5 large-scale automobile enterprise groups with core competitiveness. The industry concentration of the top 10 enterprises will reach 90%.
Under the order of the policy, many domestic enterprises began to act. The reorganization and integration within the China Ordnance Group, the acquisition of Changfeng Automobile by GAC, the marriage of GAC and Gio, and so on. However, there are many cases in which the merger and reorganization has been lost, such as the cooperation between Chery and Jianghuai, and the cooperation between FAW and Brilliance.
"The above failed cases do not rule out the reasons for local government intervention, but the idea of ​​mergers and acquisitions should be changed. Do not take the old road of the government's 'Langlang match', but should be market-oriented 'free love', more important It is better to cooperate with the two parties through cooperation in platform cooperation and technology sharing. This should be better than eating big fish.†Jia Xinguang said.
In this regard, Zhao Ying, director of the Industrial Development Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said, "On a macro level, the government can raise emissions standards, fuel consumption and other standards, so that those small and medium-sized enterprises with weak technical skills are 'nowhere to go'. Exiting autonomously, and local governments will be eager to get rid of the mess of losing companies."
Luo Lei added: "For a long time, China's merger and reorganization policy has always ignored the problem of 'how to be merged enterprises.' For business operators, mergers are indeed unacceptable. After being merged, their interests are Where? This may be the next issue that policymakers should consider."
"In the past few years, the automobile industry has developed rapidly. It is not only a large-scale industrial group. Even small and medium-sized enterprises with a production capacity of 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles have a good performance. It is naturally difficult to promote mergers. But at present, China's automobile industry has come to an urgent The brakes, the growth rate is slowing down, this should be the best time for the merger and reorganization strategy," Luo Lei said.
New energy policy impulses and lack of technology
However, control increments and mergers and acquisitions are not the key way to solve the problems of China's auto industry.
A series of social problems such as road congestion and air pollution are increasing with the increase in the number of cars. "If we follow the US 1000-person possession standard, China needs four Earth's energy sources to reach a similar level of energy consumption per capita." Du Xiangyu, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said to the media.
In the face of pressure, policy support is unprecedented. On the opening day of the "two sessions", the Ministry of Science and Technology released the "12th Five-Year Special Plan for Electric Vehicle Technology Development (Abstract)", trying to re-establish a clear development direction for China's new energy vehicles. On March 7, the Ministry of Finance promulgated the “Detailed Rules for the Reduction of Vehicle and Vessel Taxes for Energy-Saving or New Energy Vehicles and Vesselsâ€, which is intended to make up for the previous shortcomings.
However, the development prospects of new energy vehicles in China do not seem to be optimistic. At least within the government and industry, there is no ambition and impulse to mention five years ago: by 2012, 10% of new cars produced in China will be energy-saving and new energy vehicles.
According to the statistics of the Automobile Industry Association, as of the end of 2011, the demonstration city actually operated about 15,000 new energy vehicles, which is not far from the national total demonstration promotion target of 25,000 vehicles, and it is eight-tenths of the 18.5 million vehicle production in 2011.
"It is not unexpected that such a situation arises," Luo Lei said. "After all, the new energy vehicle is a system engineering. Not only the automobile production enterprises must control the cost, but also master the core battery research and development technology. The social supporting facilities and industry standards must be coordinated."
Under the great attention of the government, the system engineering of new energy vehicles has become more like a car that has been out of control in the past five years. In the disputes over technical routes, competition for infrastructure ownership, and government subsidies, it is impossible to sway. More frustration comes from the triumph of the European, American and Japanese counterparts in the past five years, and the hope that Chinese cars will achieve “curve overtaking†through the new energy route is almost illusory.
The "12th Five-Year Plan" (Abstract) of the development of electric vehicle technology mentioned that fuel cells and pure electric vehicles are regarded as the main direction of the development of national new energy vehicles. Ouyang Ming, the head of the national “863 Program†energy-saving and new energy vehicle major project, felt a lot of pressure, he said. “We have found that the fuel cells that have been considered to be far away, the Japanese have already achieved enough commercialization.â€
The development of China's new energy vehicles is still stuck in this difficult problem of technology. At present, China's fuel cell industry lacks a shaped upstream industrial chain, and most of its key materials and components are dependent on imports, resulting in a general dilemma for people.
"For example, many companies need to buy from DuPont in the United States, and key components such as air compressors are often not available for money." Industry insiders said frankly.
This seems to have returned to the bitter origin of the reform and opening up 30 years ago: Is it open market for technology, or is it to protect the market from self-reliance? The former has been proven to fail and the latter has not been successful.
Many difficulties faced by the automobile society can only be solved through technological upgrading and industrial transformation. This approach is both a goal and a path.
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