In 2010, driven by the apparent increase in the operating rate of phosphate fertilizer enterprises in the downstream and the continued warming in the international market, the domestic sulfur market has emerged from the downturn and entered a journey of recovery. The sulphur price rose from the low price of RMB 500/ton at the beginning of the year to the high of RMB 1600/ton at the end of the fourth quarter of the third quarter, which represented a three-fold increase.
After observation, sulfur has doubled or multiplied several times since 2005. This is due to the shortage of sulphur in the country and the fact that countries such as India and Brazil have competed with China for resources in the international market. .
According to IFA's forecast that the global sulphur supply in 2011-2014 will generally exceed supply demand, the oversupply demand will remain between 2 million and 3 million tons in 2011-2013, and there will be a clear oversupply in 2014. The main reason is that It is the natural gas desulfurization project in the Middle East and China that will be completed and put into production. By that time, the supply will increase significantly. Therefore, Blueway.com expects that the domestic sulfur shortage will not be fundamentally reversed until 2015.
Due to the fact that the sulphur market's dependence on imports has consistently exceeded 50% in recent years, even more years have reached 67%. What are the important impacts of the international sulfur market on China's domestic market and how will the domestic sulfur market affect the nerves of the international market? The role of the new economies in the future of the sulphur market will reach a geometric point. These issues are international and domestic. Observers have caused rethinking in the eyes of observers.
In addition, the development of the sulfur market in 2011 has the following analysis.
Good factors:
1. In the first quarter of 2011, although the international external disk did not reach the final intent, the international suppliers have a hard-line attitude. Based on the support of the international fertilizer market, the current suppliers have increased the current spot price of sulfur to a high of US$200 per ton, which is relatively high. As for domestic sulphur prices, “upside down†is still serious, and it forms a strong support for domestic sulphur prices.
2. The consumption of phosphate fertilizers in countries such as the United States, India, Brazil, etc., due to the increase in demand for phosphate fertilizer due to the increase in food prices has helped maintain the high price of phosphate fertilizer; phosphate fertilizer producers have maintained a high operating rate, which has increased the demand for sulfur; 2010 Sudden supply of sulphur in the United States began to import solid sulphur and phosphate from the Middle East and Russia. In 2011, a number of new sulphuric acid projects will be put into operation in China, Tunisia, Brazil and Jordan, including Saudi Arabia’s large phosphate fertilizer project, and it is expected to increase the sulphur demand by 1.7 million tons.
Negative factors:
1. Macroeconomics In 2011, the means of the state to control inflation will be more stringent. The country will increase its efforts to control the stock market and the real estate industry. The government’s determination will be seen in recent frequent interest rate hikes. As for the control of agricultural product prices, the country has not relaxed. In 2010, the phenomenon of "garlic pods, beans you play, Jiang Youjun, sugar Gaozong..." prompted the country to control the price of agricultural products more severely; the basis of agricultural product price control was to reduce the cost of peasants' grain production. Therefore, it is basically impossible to say that the price of fertilizer has skyrocketed.
2. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of phosphate fertilizers, and also the largest importer and consumer of sulfur. Over the past two years, sulfur imports accounted for more than 40% of the world's total sulfur trade volume, which is of great importance to the international sulfur market. influences. In the first half of 2010, the closing of the fertilizer export market was undoubtedly a huge disadvantage for chemical fertilizer companies. In the past six months, whether the domestic market can digest the huge capacity of fertilizer companies remains to be verified. At present, the fertilizer dealers are hesitating to watch and they also shake the fertilizer. The price of the product. It is expected that the impact of export policies on sulphur demand will become more apparent in the later period. The continuous rise in the price of phosphate fertilizers may lead to a decline in demand for phosphate fertilizers, which in turn will curb the demand for sulfur.
In view of the above situation, some analysts believe that in 2011 the first half of the sulphur market will be a tepid leather trend. However, there will still be considerable profits throughout the year.
After observation, sulfur has doubled or multiplied several times since 2005. This is due to the shortage of sulphur in the country and the fact that countries such as India and Brazil have competed with China for resources in the international market. .
According to IFA's forecast that the global sulphur supply in 2011-2014 will generally exceed supply demand, the oversupply demand will remain between 2 million and 3 million tons in 2011-2013, and there will be a clear oversupply in 2014. The main reason is that It is the natural gas desulfurization project in the Middle East and China that will be completed and put into production. By that time, the supply will increase significantly. Therefore, Blueway.com expects that the domestic sulfur shortage will not be fundamentally reversed until 2015.
Due to the fact that the sulphur market's dependence on imports has consistently exceeded 50% in recent years, even more years have reached 67%. What are the important impacts of the international sulfur market on China's domestic market and how will the domestic sulfur market affect the nerves of the international market? The role of the new economies in the future of the sulphur market will reach a geometric point. These issues are international and domestic. Observers have caused rethinking in the eyes of observers.
In addition, the development of the sulfur market in 2011 has the following analysis.
Good factors:
1. In the first quarter of 2011, although the international external disk did not reach the final intent, the international suppliers have a hard-line attitude. Based on the support of the international fertilizer market, the current suppliers have increased the current spot price of sulfur to a high of US$200 per ton, which is relatively high. As for domestic sulphur prices, “upside down†is still serious, and it forms a strong support for domestic sulphur prices.
2. The consumption of phosphate fertilizers in countries such as the United States, India, Brazil, etc., due to the increase in demand for phosphate fertilizer due to the increase in food prices has helped maintain the high price of phosphate fertilizer; phosphate fertilizer producers have maintained a high operating rate, which has increased the demand for sulfur; 2010 Sudden supply of sulphur in the United States began to import solid sulphur and phosphate from the Middle East and Russia. In 2011, a number of new sulphuric acid projects will be put into operation in China, Tunisia, Brazil and Jordan, including Saudi Arabia’s large phosphate fertilizer project, and it is expected to increase the sulphur demand by 1.7 million tons.
Negative factors:
1. Macroeconomics In 2011, the means of the state to control inflation will be more stringent. The country will increase its efforts to control the stock market and the real estate industry. The government’s determination will be seen in recent frequent interest rate hikes. As for the control of agricultural product prices, the country has not relaxed. In 2010, the phenomenon of "garlic pods, beans you play, Jiang Youjun, sugar Gaozong..." prompted the country to control the price of agricultural products more severely; the basis of agricultural product price control was to reduce the cost of peasants' grain production. Therefore, it is basically impossible to say that the price of fertilizer has skyrocketed.
2. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of phosphate fertilizers, and also the largest importer and consumer of sulfur. Over the past two years, sulfur imports accounted for more than 40% of the world's total sulfur trade volume, which is of great importance to the international sulfur market. influences. In the first half of 2010, the closing of the fertilizer export market was undoubtedly a huge disadvantage for chemical fertilizer companies. In the past six months, whether the domestic market can digest the huge capacity of fertilizer companies remains to be verified. At present, the fertilizer dealers are hesitating to watch and they also shake the fertilizer. The price of the product. It is expected that the impact of export policies on sulphur demand will become more apparent in the later period. The continuous rise in the price of phosphate fertilizers may lead to a decline in demand for phosphate fertilizers, which in turn will curb the demand for sulfur.
In view of the above situation, some analysts believe that in 2011 the first half of the sulphur market will be a tepid leather trend. However, there will still be considerable profits throughout the year.
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