Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the Interim Measures for the Administration of Admission Notices for HF Producing Enterprises (hereinafter referred to as the “Administrative Measuresâ€), which is another industry management document following the “Admission Requirements for HF Industry†released on March 9 last year.
Luo Yamin, a senior analyst at the China National Chemical Information Center, told reporters that the introduction of the policy is to regulate the development of the industry and limit the continuous expansion of production capacity. Zhang Li, an analyst at Fluorochemicals, a commodity data vendor, believes that the "Administrative Measures" are aimed at business access. At present, the practicality is not great, but in the long run, the introduction of the policy can rectify the industry. . â€
The "Administrative Measures" is a specific measure for the previous "Entry Conditions". The "Administrative Measures" stipulates specific implementation methods such as access conditions, scope, publicity, and dynamic management of the reporting company. It also stipulates that if the audited company fails to maintain the entry criteria afterwards, it will still revoke its entry qualifications.
Zhang Li said that at present, domestic hydrogen fluoride production capacity is already in excess, and the signal released by this policy is intended to tell companies that production capacity can no longer be blindly expanded.
Luo Yamin introduced to reporters that at present there are more than 50 hydrogen fluoride production enterprises in China. Last year, the total domestic production capacity was about 1.45 million tons, and the hydrogen fluoride production during the same period was about 1 million tons. The average operating rate was about 75%, and the production capacity was obviously excessive. Luo Yamin estimates that the total production capacity will reach more than 1.5 million tons this year, domestic demand will be about 1.12 million tons, and the export volume will be close to 200,000 tons. The calculated operating rate will be about 80%. In the next few years, the consumption of domestic hydrogen fluoride will maintain an average annual growth rate of 6% to 7%, and it is expected that the consumption will be 1.3 million to 1.4 million tons in 2015. Based on this, China's excess capacity of hydrogen fluoride will not change much in the next few years.
Under the premise of excess production capacity, new fluorine chemical projects are still emerging. In recent days, Ruijin City, Jiangxi Province has invested 2 billion yuan in the fluorine chemical project has been signed; Fujian Sannong Chemical Pesticide Co., Ltd., Liaoning Lie Culture Industry Co., Ltd. and other related projects have also put on the agenda; last April, the year The 60,000-ton hydrogen fluoride first-phase production line project started construction in Wuwei; in July of the same year, Linxi Hualong Mining Co., Ltd. laid a foundation for 40,000 tons of hydrogen fluoride project.
Zhang Li told reporters that downstream demand for some high-end fluorine chemical products still existed, and many new projects for low-end products such as hydrofluoric acid were approved when the market was in good condition, but they did not expect the market situation to decline. In addition, companies also want to do a long industrial chain, "the front line is too long, in fact, is not necessary for some of the strength of the company is not necessary." Zhang Li added.
Some analysts have commented that the "Administrative Measures" promulgated this time will eliminate most of the non-qualified SMEs and encourage the concentration of resources to large enterprises. Shi Weina, an information analyst at Zhongyu, told reporters that in the fluorine chemical industry, small and medium-sized enterprises account for roughly 30% of the total. Due to sluggish peripheral economy, the demand for terminals has been light, and many companies have already stopped to reduce their load. Hai Tong Securities (an analyst Yi Cunhui told reporters that SMEs account for less than 20% of the entire fluorine chemical industry's profits. Zhang Li also said that now fewer fluorine chemical companies, production capacity of less than 10,000 tons in recent years Years have been eliminated one after another, and large companies may benefit from the frustration of SMEs due to their compliance with various access conditions and their own scale advantages.
However, Luo Yamin believes that currently the enterprises in the industry have control over resources, and the domestic technology for the production of 10,000 to 20,000 tons of hydrogen fluoride is relatively mature. The “Administrative Measures†has no significant impact on SMEs. At present, domestic fluorite resources are gradually depleting. Although there is a tendency for resources to concentrate on specific companies, it is unlikely.
Talking about the practical significance of the "Administrative Measures," Zhang Li replied: "The introduction of the policy has a role in rectifying the industry in the long term." "The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan is that companies that produce only related products will no longer increase. Industrial chain enterprises, so as to achieve the integrity of the entire industry chain." Shi Weina said that in the weak economy, the market is facing asymmetrical production and marketing background, fluorine chemical industry should rely on technology, develop more industrial chain, and actively explore the downstream Demand, so that the industrial chain can be fully developed. “Now the downstream demand of the fluorine chemical industry is not good. In the long run, the development of the enterprise will eventually return to technology.†Yi Tuanhui said.
It is reported that the A-share listed companies to which the fluorine chemical industry belongs are Juhua, San Aifu, and Fluorine. In the second half of 2011, with the continuous release of production capacity, coupled with the instability of the international economy and the continued weakness of domestic real estate, automobile and other industries, the fluorine chemical industry was severely impacted.
Comparing last year's and this year's quarterly report, in 2011, total operating revenue of Fluorinol in the first quarter was 284 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.05%. This year's quarterly company's total operating revenue showed a year-on-year increase of only 12.18%. In the first quarter of 2011, the total operating revenue of San Aifu increased by 103.84% year-on-year, and the figure for the first quarter of this year was a decrease of 29.73% year-on-year.
Business statistics show that the end of May, the mainstream factory price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in the 7800 yuan / ton, down 32.29%.
In the case of unsatisfied downstream demand and sluggish market conditions, it is particularly important to actively develop the downstream industrial chain of fluorinated workers and use new varieties to promote industrial development. Debon Securities analyst Li Xiangfeng said in his research report on Juhua's shares that the demand for refrigerants in the first half of the year was not strong during the peak season, and the demand for refrigerants was down compared with the same period of last year. All types of refrigerant prices fell to the bottom. Taking R22 as an example, the current price of R22 is around 10,300 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 59.61% compared with the same period of last year. Based on various unfavorable factors, it has become a strategy for related companies to expand the downstream industrial chain of fluorinated workers and develop new varieties.
Li Xiangfeng mentioned that Juhua has extended its fluorine chemical industrial chain in recent years, focusing on the development of new projects such as upgrading of environmentally friendly refrigerants, ODS substitutes, TFE and downstream products, and PVDC new food packaging materials. New varieties and new production capacity will become the future of the company. The main driving force for development.
A person in charge of Juhua said that companies need to develop in an integrated manner and support them upstream and downstream. This will not only reduce logistics costs but also reduce environmental costs. The risk of a single product will be relatively large. According to reports, at present, Juhua’s operating rate is self-evident, in addition to its own production of hydrogen fluoride for downstream purchases from other companies.
In this regard, some analysts have also indicated that Juhua’s own raw material advantage, and that San Aifu has its own downstream needs. In the case of sluggish industries and weak demand, compared to those “isolated†small businesses, they have Have better development prospects.
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