Devalrosk pointed out that for most chemical companies, 2009 was the worst year in memory, if not the worst year in history. With the spread of the global financial crisis to the real economy, chemical companies experienced a series of challenges last year. At the beginning of 2009, due to the recession in the construction of two important end markets and the automotive industry, the demand for most chemical products fell to the lowest level in five years.
The destocking measures commonly adopted by various industries from the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2009 have further aggravated the situation of shrinking demand. With the economic recession, companies are rapidly cutting inventory on the one hand, and on the other hand waiting for raw material prices to further decline. The sharp drop in product prices and sales at the same time has seriously affected corporate profits. In the first quarter of 2009, all chemical companies encountered financial difficulties, and those companies in highly leveraged financial situations even faced life and death. Some large chemical companies and their major users are unsustainable. The auto giants American General Motors and Chrysler Motors filed for bankruptcy protection last year. Many companies are also on the verge of bankruptcy. Many small businesses in the downstream industry chain simply Stopped business.
With the stabilisation of commodity prices, companies gradually stopped mass destocking in the second quarter of 2009 and started to replenish their stocks appropriately, thereby stimulating demand to pick up. De Varoske believes that the global economy has bottomed out in 2009. The reports of various agencies and year-end forecasts all pointed out that the global economy is showing signs of recovery, and the rebuilding of inventories in various industries will lead to an increase in chemical demand in 2010.
Terminal needs are divided into four categories
Devalrosk pointed out that the growth in the production capacity of petrochemical products in the Middle East and Asia in 2010 will inevitably lead to excess global capacity. For the chemical industry, not all chemicals will increase in demand in 2010 because the end market performance varies.
In accordance with the different performances in this economic downturn, he divided the related industries into several categories: First, industries that are not affected by the economic downturn, such as the pharmaceutical and food industries, have always been relatively strong in demand and serve the two markets. Production of pharmaceutical intermediates and food additives in the industry will continue to grow; the second is the standard industry, which has reached the bottom early in this economic recession and has recovered with the need to rebuild companies' inventories, such as semiconductors and petroleum products. Etc. Third, the new normal industry, that is, after undergoing major adjustments, it is expected to resume growth in industries such as the automotive industry and the construction industry; and IV is an industry with potential for recovery, that is, when the stocks are recently bottomed out and reconstructed in 2010. Industries where demand will recover, such as consumer durables, computers, electronic equipment and apparel. Among them, the fourth industry that has the potential for recovery has a relatively large number of variables in 2010. They may either be transformed into standard industries or transformed into new normal industries.
Similarly, the demand for chemicals in various regions in 2010 is also quite different. Over the past 10 years, the annual average demand for ethylene in the Chinese market has grown at a rate of over 10%, while in developed regions, the demand has grown at a rate of less than 2%. In 2009, the developed countries were hit harder than the emerging economies by the crisis, which will further widen the difference in growth rates between developed and emerging economies.
Overcapacity is more serious
Although emerging economies can still maintain a high market growth rate, as the growth of production capacity far exceeds the growth rate of demand, competition among manufacturers everywhere will be unavoidable. This kind of competition in 2010 will further increase global petrochemical capacity overcapacity, at the same time it will also accelerate the pace of restructuring in the chemical industry and prompt the global chemical industry to change.
For developed regions without new installations and production plans, manufacturers in the region must face product mix optimization in the face of new market conditions. Continuous asset restructuring will not only change the ownership of the device, but will also allow some companies to enter. Bankruptcy proceedings. In 2010, the impact of imports of low-cost petrochemical products in the Middle East was most severe in Europe because North America had set up trade barriers for low-cost imported products â€“ high logistics costs and profitable natural gas condensate (NGL) arbitrage. Tools, which will provide more protection for producers in the region.
It can be foreseen that in the future, as Asian and Middle Eastern manufacturersâ€™ products continue to increase in global market share, they will attract more talents in developed regions and introduce more advanced technologies, thus consolidating their position in the world.
Strong industrial integration wins
Before the recession began, the global petrochemical product price began to rise sharply from the turn of the century, and chemical manufacturers are also accustomed to the company's business rising year after year. After experiencing this economic recession, the industry performance no longer converges, and different regions will have different trajectories. The growth rate in developed regions will be lower than in previous years. Product price fluctuations will become a normal state and global competition will become increasingly fierce.
The fierce competition is likely to cause industrial integration, and those old factories that are not competitive will face the fate of shutting down. Like other industries, the chemical industry has experienced unprecedented economic difficulties and will continue to face challenges. Due to the different end markets and regions served, the future demand for various chemicals will be mixed. In this process, some chemical companies with obvious advantages will win.
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